Tim’s House of Representatives Predictions

With the opening of polls less than 12 hours away, I thought I would make a few predictions for what we shall see occur in the House of Representatives.

I make this with two caveats. Firstly, I am a member of the Liberal Party, have campaigned for them, and want them to win. This has been known to cloud judgments somewhat. Secondly, I don’t actually live in Australia. Despite visiting at the moment, it is somewhat difficult to get into the campaigning weeds from 25,000km away. With that being said, this reflects the best information/knowledge I have.

(I wish to note some of them at the beginning I’ve tagged with  confidence levels. These are not to be taken as statistical degrees of confidence or anything, but you can roughly translate them into my thinking extremely confident – 90, very confident – 80%, Confident – 70 %, Probable 60%, Just Over Even 51%)

NEW SOUTH WALES

In NSW, I believe the Liberals will hold all the seats currently theirs, and pick up the following:

Robertson – 0.1% ALP: Lib gain (Extremely  Confident)

This was a seat the Liberals should not have lost in 2007, and only did so due to what was fairly universally considered one of the most inept campaigns seen in politics recently.

You add to this the fact that the current member is not standing for re-election (and her general unpopularity after a rather abysmal term in office), the conservative nature of the electorate, the fact that the Liberals have a strong candidate, and the feeling Labor has taken the central coast for granted, this would seem a fairly evident Liberal gain.

With that being said though, Labor seem to be quite genuinly – and quite surprisingly – somewhat confident about this seat. I am unsure why, but apparently their polling tells them something I’m just not seeing (and I note Julia Gillard was out there just yesterday). With that being said, I am fairly confident in calling this for the Liberals.

Macquarie – 0.3%ALP: Lib gain (Very  Confident)

The boundaries of Macquarie were radically redrawn in 2007, leading to what was previously a fairly safe Liberal seat falling to Labor. Louise Markus, the current Liberal Member for Greenway (whose boundaries have also sharply changed) is running as the Liberal candidate, and has the advantage of a high community profile. Plus, The boundaries have returned to where they were in 2004 for this election, and the NSW swing away from Labor should easily enough to return this seat to the Libs.

Gilmore – 0.4% ALP: Lib gain (Extremely Confident)

Although notionally Labor after the redistribution, a popular local Liberal member, who is very good at working the community, and is genuinely well liked means the Libs will have no problem holding this.

Macarthur – 0.5% ALP: Lib gain (Very Confident)

A slightly difficult situation in this seat: retiring Liberal member, repeat Labor candidate, and new Liberal Candidate (who is a local councilor). I am fairly confident that the anti-Labor swing in NSW will be sufficient for the Liberals to pull through.

Bennelong – 1.4% ALP : Lib gain (Confident)

This is a seat where Labor should have increased their margin considerably, with John Howard’s personal vote at the last election responsible for at least 5% to the Liberals. However, the performance of Maxine McKew has been so terrible as a MP, that the Liberals are in a very strong position to take it back. As such, despite some stumbles on the Liberal campaign side, the profile of John Alexander combined with the truly dismal performance of Maxine (both as MP and during the campaign) should ensure a Liberal victory.

Eden-Monaro – 2.3%ALP: Labor Hold (Very Confident)

Considerably outside of the Sydney metropolitan area, the seat of Eden-Monaro is one that doesn’t have the same hatred of the State Labor government that is responsible for generating at least some of the swing in other seats. Also, the resources have just not been put into this seat to ensure a Liberal victory, and too much campaigning attention I feel may have been devoted to Quenbean, as opposed to outlying areas. Although  some have interpreted Julia Gillard’s visit there yesterday as a sign the outcome was in doubt, however, I think this was simply due to the fact that she was in the area following her Press Club speech, and the ALP shall have little trouble in holding this seat.

Page – 2.4% ALP: Labor Hold (Very Confident)

It’s the Nats, need I say anymore? (Speaking of The Nats though, I hear people are starting to get worried about them losing Parkes to an independent. Extremely unlikely, but one to keep an eye on perhaps…)

Dobell – 3.9% ALP: Labor Hold (Extremely Confident)

Nothing to say really, the Liberal candidate has not resonated with the community particularly, Labor will hold.

Greenway – 5.7% ALP Labor Hold (Confident)

Despite the sitting (Liberal) member running for an adjacent seat (Macquarie) following a redistribution, the Liberals will certainly pick up a strong swing in this seat, not only due to the general swing, but rather the candidate’s strong work with/support from various ethnic communities in the area. I just don’t think it will be enough.

Lindsay – 6.3% ALP – Liberal gain (Just Over Even)

This is an electorate that has really turned off Julia Gillard and Labor, and the high Labor margin is overinflated due to the … unpleasantness … last time around. With the Liberals preselecting their candidate only a week out from the election being called, this will be a tough seat for them to win, but, it’s certainly possible.

And the rest it’s not even worth talking about!

AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY

Hahaha. Really? There’d be any doubt? Pfft.

VICTORIA

Julia Gillard enjoys a strong home-town advantage in Victoria, and I do not believe there is even a chance the Liberals will pick up any Labor seat. Looking at the seats the Liberals currently hold:

McEwan – Lib 0.02% (ALP Gain – Very Confident)

With the local member retiring, and having a strong personal loyalty vote in the area, despite the fact that the Liberal candidate is a true local hero, and the strong Liberal campaign run in the electorate (in particular the work of Senator Scott Ryan there has been amazing), I just can’t see the Liberals holding onto this seat.

La Trobe – Lib 0.5% (ALP Gain –Confident)

A strong Labor candidate this time around, combined with the anti-Lib swing in Victoria, I think will ensure a swing of at least 2-3% to the ALP, which will be enough!

Dunkley – Lib 4% (ALP Gain –Probable)

Bruce Billison is a great MP, but this is a seat Labor has poured a lot of resources into, and I just can’t see him holding it (unfortunately).

And that’s all from Victoria.I was previously rather hopeful about Corangomite and as a Liberal pickup, but in the light of recent polling I just can’t see it. With this being said though, the betting markets are a lot more pro-Liberal than I am, and my confidence levels aren’t that high, so it’s quite possible we’ll only lose 2 of these three). Also, I’ll give Melbourne to The Greens, for the one and only reason that I want Labor’s number in this analysis to be lower.

Tasmania

The status quo in Tasmania shall remain, and the Liberals shall just miss out on retaking Bass (but it will come down to the wire)

South Australia

The status quo shall remain in Tasmania. Despite a scare for the Liberals in Boothby earlier in the campaign, where they are not performing as well as they would have liked, they should be able to muster enough to ensure they hold onto it. Sturt will see an increased Liberal margin, as Christopher Pyne is both a very active local member, and has been very well resourced in the campaign. Otherwise I pretty much concur with Chris Browne.

Western Australia

Everything I’m hearing tells me the Liberals will hold onto what they get, and pick up Swan and Hasluck.

Northern Territory

The Country Liberal Party certainly seems to be almost trying to campaign for the other team! Nevertheless, I am quite confident Solomon will revert to the Coalition.

QLD

I tip the Coalition to hold everything they have, and pick up: Herbert, Dickson, Leichardt, Dawson, and Flynn easily. Longman they would have been guaranteed, had they not chosen a 19 year old who looks like he’s still in primary school as a candidate, but I think they’ll just scrape through, a fact quite helped by the Labor’s candidate incredibly insensitive gaffe yesterday. The Coalition also has a not-insignificant chance of retaking Forde.

Where does that leave us?

Obviously not every seat I’m confident the Coalition will win, it will win, and vice versa (that’s how confidence percentages work obviously), so, factoring all this in, I see a net gain of 8 for the Coalition, meaning we’ll see a parliament of:

Greens: 1
Independents: 3
Coalition: 67
Labor: 79

Sigh. Of course, anything can happen, and you never know what will occur, but yeah… Also, I note that this is the same result William Bowe got , and is only one off from Ben Raue’s prediction (albeit with different working), so law of averages of predictions from accross the spectrum seems to be clear…

So yes. Thoughts? And Hopefully I didn’t make any mathematical mistakes!

UPDATE: See my Senate Prediction here

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3 Responses to “Tim’s House of Representatives Predictions”

  1. Norman Jacka Says:

    Hi Tim if I may offer a friendly view from the other side of the aisle as were, I think it’ll be closer than that but as I see it in WA I would rate our chances in Hasluck and possibly Canning, I’m somewhat less confident about Swan. The mining tax stuff will us hardest in Brand since that’s where a lot of the FIFO workers live but there’s enough of a margin there. We’ll do worse in NSW than Qld (NSW ALP being in such great shape as I’m sure you know). I agree with you about Melbourne but I’d be interested in your analysis. Hope you’re having a good time back in Oz.

  2. Tim’s Senate Prediction « The musings of an Australian classical liberal in Washington DC Says:

    […] The musings of an Australian classical liberal in Washington DC VENI. BLOGI. LIBERI. « Tim’s House of Representatives Predictions […]

  3. TerjeP (say tay-a) Says:

    I’m from the future and I bring you good news. The ALP won’t win a majority as you predict. Also at Randwick …. the time portal is closing … you should place a trifecta on …..

    -> worm hole transmission terminated <-

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